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The human brain is not wired to think in exponential terms

If I asked you to go out and take 30 steps, you could easily guess where you'd end up in distance. But, if I asked you to go out and take 30 exponential steps (1 step first day, 2 steps second day, 4, 8, 16...), which city or country do you think you'd end up in? Take a moment and think about it before checking the answer.


You'd walk around the world 26 times. I bet you didn't think it would be that high? Welcome to exponential growth.

Such exponential functions didn't exist in the world for thousands of years due to physical limitations. For 15000 years, human development have been local and linear. However, technology changed the fundamental functions that rule our world and made them exponential. This is why, our minds simply can't fathom the exponential functions yet.

The biggest example of exponential functions is the technology itself. In 1965, Gordon Moore predicted that the number of transistors on a computer chip would double every 2 years effectively doubling computer's computational ability. Nobody was able to predict how important computers were going to become back then, nobody does now.

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Albert Allen Bartlett quote

We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten - Bill Gates quote